September 2024 was a wild ride, and it actually ended pretty well for me. But it didn’t start out that way. The first week was rough—Bitcoin (BTC) dropped hard, from $59,053 all the way down to $52,500. But then, as always with crypto, things turned around, and we saw a surge back up to $65,604 by the end of the month. Let me walk you through how I fared in this volatile month of trading.

The Numbers

I started the month with $4,800 and ended up making about $740 in profit—around 15.4%. Sounds good, right? But here’s where it gets interesting (or problematic, depending on how you look at it).

I made a total of 123 trades in September. When I break that down, my profit per trade was only $6.01. That’s not great, and it’s a clear sign I might have been overtrading. More trades didn’t translate to more profits, which shows I was probably chasing too many small moves instead of focusing on high-probability setups.

Win Rate and Lack of Edge

My win rate was 54%, which on the surface seems fine, but I’m not convinced. It feels more like luck than skill. I’m not seeing a strong edge in my strategy. A 54% win-rate suggests that I’m basically flipping a coin, and without a real edge, that’s a risky game to play.

The No Stop Loss Gamble

Interestingly, the trades that made the most profit also brought the biggest losses. Why? Because I didn’t use a stop loss (SL) on some of them. I know, I know—rookie mistake. But it’s a tough lesson learned. Riding trades without a safety net can sometimes work in your favor, but it can also wipe out gains if the market turns against you.

Easy Mode Trading

Most of my profitable trades were longs, taken during what I like to call “easy mode” after the first week of September. The market was going up and up, and I felt like I couldn’t go wrong. This is where FOMO (fear of missing out) started to creep in—I was chasing prices, buying high, and expecting them to go even higher. And in a market, that’s only moving up, that strategy works like a charm. I’d buy high, and the price would just keep climbing. It felt perfect, even ideal.

It reminded me of that feeling you get at a casino when you’re watching someone hit a winning streak at the blackjack table. They keep winning hand after hand, and it starts to feel like they’re on fire. So, naturally, you jump in, thinking the luck will rub off on you. At first, you win a few hands—it’s all good. But you’re not really playing with a strategy, you’re just following the rush of adrenaline, betting bigger and bigger, because it feels like the luck will never run out. And then, just as quickly, the streak ends. Suddenly, you’re losing, and you realize you never had a real plan in the first place—you were just chasing the high.

That’s exactly how it felt during “easy mode” in September. I wasn’t trading with skill or discipline. I was just riding the market wave, convinced it would keep going up. Reckless trades started feeling justified because they were making money. But the truth is, I was relying more on luck than anything else. And when the market suddenly flipped, I was caught off guard—just like at the blackjack table when the cards stop going your way.

The Danger of ‘Uptober’ Mindset

As the bullish sentiment started to pick up, I got sucked into making bigger and more reckless trades, especially as we headed into October (or as the crypto world loves to call it, “Uptober”). I stopped using SLs, thinking that the market would just keep going up. That mindset—thinking that bullish sentiment is a given—made me too comfortable and overconfident.

Reality Check: War Escalation

Then came the curveball: the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, and all asset classes took a hit. BTC dropped from the $65k range back down to around $59k. That was the moment I realized how dangerous my “no SL” mindset had become. I wasn’t prepared for the sudden drop, and it was a harsh reminder that nothing is ever certain in trading.

The result: I roundtrip all the profit I made on September.

Plans for October: Back to Basics

So, what now? Here’s my game plan for October:

• No more reckless trades. It’s time to tighten up my risk management and stop chasing after every market move.
• Size up or down accordingly. I need to make sure my trade size reflects the risk I’m willing to take.
• Always use a stop loss. It’s non-negotiable from now on.
• Finding my edge is a never-ending journey. I need to continue refining my strategy and focusing on what works for me.
• Develop probabilistic thinking. Nothing is certain in this market, and I need to approach every trade with that mindset. Note: I bought Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, hoping it will improve my decision making and thought process. I will definitely write what I learn in separate blog post. Stay tune.

Conclusion

September’s journey through the markets taught me one fundamental truth: trading, like life, is a balance between control and surrender. There are moments when everything aligns—when you feel like you’ve mastered the flow, and profits come effortlessly. But just as quickly, the tide can turn, reminding you that nothing is ever fully within your grasp.

This brings me to an essential aspect of trading: probabilistic thinking. Nothing in the market, and life, is guaranteed—except, as the old saying goes, death and taxes. Every decision is a bet on the future, a wager on what might happen, not what will happen. That’s why having a plan in place before making any execution is crucial. It’s about preparing for all possible outcomes, not just the favorable ones. Because in the realm of probabilities, certainty is an illusion, and the only constant is change.

The market rewards those who think in terms of probabilities, who approach each decision with the understanding that success isn’t defined by any single trade, but by the consistency of many. October is another chapter—an opportunity to step back, reassess, and trade with intention rather than impulse. Trading isn’t just about making money; it’s about mastering the art of preparation and managing the unknown.